Pentagon reports put price tag on Space Force’s biggest satellite bets
Newly released Pentagon acquisition reports shed new light on the cost and progress of three of the Space Force’s largest satellite programs.
These reports cover the Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications program, or ESS, and the geosynchronous and polar components of Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared, or Next-Gen OPI. Together, they offer a snapshot of more than $20 billion in planned acquisition spending.
The Modernized Selected Acquisition Reports, or MSARs, provide assessments of major weapons programs against their approved cost and schedule baselines.
Strategic satcom mission
The ESS communications system is being developed to take over the strategic mission now performed by the Advanced Extremely High Frequency constellation, providing secure and survivable links for the president, senior defense officials and U.S. strategic forces, including coverage of the Arctic.
Boeing won a $2.8 billion cost-plus contract in July 2025 for the first two spacecraft. The new report puts the full ESS space acquisition at seven satellites and $11.58 billion in then-year dollars, including $7.2 billion in research and development and $4.38 billion in procurement. The plan calls for two development satellites and five procurement spacecraft.
The report warns that requirements changes could increase costs and delay completion of the design. It says the Space Force is discussing ESS capabilities and resource requirements with unidentified international partners, potentially leading to cooperative agreements. The satellite design itself won’t be changed to accommodate foreign requirements but ESS could potentially support allies.
Missile warning satellites
Next-Gen OPIR GEO and Polar reflect the traditional approach to strategic missile warning: a small number of highly specialized satellites built for demanding missions in high-altitude orbits.
These programs are moving forward as the Pentagon pivots toward proliferated constellations in low and medium Earth orbit, where capabilities can be distributed across more spacecraft and refreshed more frequently.
Lockheed Martin’s Next-Gen OPIR GEO program consists of two large geosynchronous missile-warning satellites designed to detect and report intercontinental and tactical ballistic missile launches. Its current acquisition estimate is about $8.54 billion for two spacecraft.
The first satellite is targeted for launch no earlier than October 2026. That date has already moved several times. The latest shift cited in the report resulted from anomaly investigations involving United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket, rather than a problem with the spacecraft. The second satellite is in integration and testing.
The GEO program was once expected to include three spacecraft. The third was removed from the baseline, and the report says it is no longer an option on Lockheed’s contract. The Northrop Grumman-built infrared mission payload was instead transferred to the Next-Gen OPIR Polar program, a move the Space Force says saved the two programs a combined $350 million.
Now the Pentagon wants to terminate Polar.
Northrop Grumman is building two Next-Gen OPIR Polar satellites for highly elliptical orbits, providing missile-warning coverage over northern latitudes that are difficult to observe continuously from geosynchronous orbit.
Northrop received a contract in October 2024 to build, integrate, test and launch both spacecraft, and program costs so far have reached $3.2 billion.
Congress is pushing back against the administration’s effort to end it and inserted language in the 2027 defense bill that requires the Air Force to continue the program.
For industry, the takeaway is not that large satellites are disappearing but that the Pentagon is becoming more selective about where it wants them.
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