Pentagon expands launch plans as rocket bottlenecks persist
The Space Force is preparing for a sharp increase in national security launches even though the number of rockets available to carry those missions remains limited. Two recent changes to the Pentagon’s main launch-buying program show how much the forecast for demand has grown.
The service this month raised the ceiling of its National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1 contract to $17 billion from $5.6 billion. In April, it disclosed 25 additional missions for Phase 3 Lane 2, on top of the 54 launches originally planned over five years.
The $17 billion Lane 1 figure is a contract ceiling, not committed spending. But the $11.4 billion increase, combined with a nearly 50 percent expansion of the Lane 2 manifest, points to a much larger military launch pipeline than the Pentagon anticipated when it structured Phase 3.
The Space Force has created a broad pool of potential suppliers, but only a small number have rockets ready to fly national security missions.
Lane 1, the commercial-style portion of Phase 3, now includes SpaceX, United Launch Alliance, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, Impulse Space and Relativity Space. Admission to the shared contract makes a company eligible to compete for future task orders but doesn’t guarantee work. Providers generally must first complete a successful orbital flight and satisfy other readiness requirements. Several companies in the pool are still developing their vehicles.
The supply picture is tighter in Lane 2, which covers expensive satellites bound for demanding orbits and requires the full NSSL certification process. SpaceX and ULA are the only companies with certified rockets. Blue Origin holds a Lane 2 contract but must complete certification of New Glenn before it can compete for missions.
For now, SpaceX is carrying much of the load. The Space Force has moved time-sensitive missions from ULA to SpaceX, which has won most of the Phase 3 task orders awarded so far.
ULA was expected to provide much of the second source of capacity. Its Vulcan rocket was certified for national security missions in 2025 after years of delays. Vulcan has since encountered another setback. An anomaly involving one of its solid-rocket boosters during a Space Force mission in February prompted an investigation and a pause in additional national-security flights.
ULA is carrying a substantial backlog from the previous NSSL Phase 2 contract, along with new Phase 3 assignments and commercial launches for Amazon’s satellite broadband network.
Blue Origin is working toward becoming the Space Force’s third certified Lane 2 provider.
New Glenn completed two successful orbital flights before a May 28 explosion during an integrated hot-fire test damaged equipment at the company’s Cape Canaveral launch complex.
The company has begun rebuilding the site and says it plans to return New Glenn to flight this year using a revised system for moving and erecting the rocket at the pad.
Behind Blue Origin is a group of newer providers that could add capacity to Lane 1 — once their rockets are flying.
Rocket Lab is developing Neutron, a reusable medium-lift rocket, and has been testing its Archimedes engines ahead of a potential first flight later in 2026. A successful debut would allow the company compete for Lane 1 launch task orders of smaller satellites and constellations to low Earth orbit.
Relativity Space is developing Terran R, a medium reusable rocket designed to carry more than 20 metric tons to low Earth orbit while recovering its first stage. The company plans to launch from Cape Canaveral, but Terran R has yet to fly.
Stoke Space is working on Nova, a fully reusable medium-lift vehicle. The company has raised substantial private capital, secured a launch site at Cape Canaveral and advanced major hardware through testing, but it also remains in development.
Impulse Space offers a different model. The company doesn’t build a booster. Its Helios transfer vehicle is designed to launch aboard another company’s rocket and then carry a payload from low Earth orbit to geostationary orbit or another high-energy destination.
But those options remain prospective. The near-term NSSL market still depends heavily on SpaceX, ULA’s return to regular Vulcan flights and Blue Origin’s ability to recover from its ground-test mishap and complete New Glenn certification.
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