U.S. launch expansion constrained by government personnel shortages
Discussions about U.S. launch capacity have typically focused on physical infrastructure — launch pads, processing facilities and airspace access.
Another key constraint on efforts to accelerate launch cadence is that automation tools are not being adopted quickly enough to offset personnel reductions and growing workloads, executives said at the ASCEND conference in Washington. They noted that federal workforce reductions and restructurings have added strain to launch range operations just as military and commercial launch demand accelerates.
That pressure is building as the Pentagon pushes toward more responsive launch operations to support proliferated military satellite constellations, missile tracking systems and other national security missions requiring far more frequent access to orbit than in previous decades.
“We've probably all seen across the board, the federal workforce over the last year or two has been reshaped a bit,” said Laura Maginnis, vice president of New Glenn mission management at Blue Origin. She said the changes have put pressure on the personnel responsible for integrating launches and managing operational requirements at federal ranges.
Forecasts of growing demand
According to new data on launch demand, the U.S. will need not only additional launch infrastructure, but also more automated and streamlined operations to sustain higher launch tempos.
Maginnis said Space Force organizations managing the Eastern and Western ranges — Space Launch Delta 45 at Cape Canaveral and Space Launch Delta 30 at Vandenberg — are operating under strain.
“They're working as hard as they can, but the demand that has been put on them … it's basically going up 50% to 100% a year,” she said. Blue Origin is expanding payload processing capacity at Cape Canaveral under a $78 million Space Force contract intended to support both national security and commercial missions.
Launch capacity issues get high-level attention
Air Force Secretary Troy Meink told lawmakers last week the Department of the Air Force has completed a draft study concluding the U.S. likely needs another site capable of supporting heavy and super-heavy launches.
“It still shocks me a little bit that launch infrastructure seems to be the limitation right now on the nation's ability to grow our commercial launch,” Meink said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.
Meink said another heavy-launch-capable site may be needed both for resiliency and to accommodate projected growth in national security launch missions.
Maginnis said launch operations at ranges that support both commercial and government launches remain fragmented and overly manual.
“As we continue to scale, we really need to use tools and automation to integrate our requirements together,” she said, adding that more use of AI-enabled operational tools could help improve efficiency.
Randy Kendall, vice president of launch, missiles and mobility at The Aerospace Corporation, said the industry is entering a period where projected launch demand is rising faster than the infrastructure needed to support it.
“Demand is skyrocketing,” Kendall said, pointing to the growing number of commercial constellations seeking regulatory approval, including proposed orbital data center networks that could sharply increase launch requirements if they materialize.
Kendall said both the Eastern and Western launch ranges that support most U.S. orbital launches rely on decades-old infrastructure, even as launch cadence accelerates and the Pentagon pushes for more responsive national security launch capabilities.
While the Defense Department has requested billions of dollars for launch infrastructure modernization, Kendall said it remains unclear whether or when the investments will translate into substantially faster launch operations.
“Are we investing in the right things?” he asked.
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