Amid a military space buildup, rules of conflict in orbit remain unclear
Even as Washington spends more on military space than ever before, the rules of conflict in orbit remain unsettled, says a new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.
The report notes that one of the most basic questions in military space operations remains unresolved: When does competition in space become war?
Based on a January workshop that brought together more than 50 experts from the military, government, industry, allied nations and academia, the report concludes that the United States is already engaged in a sustained gray-zone competition with China in orbit. Yet participants found little consensus on where hostile behavior ends and armed conflict begins.
"Conflict in space is more complex than many participants anticipated," the report states, citing challenges in assessing escalation, attributing hostile actions and determining appropriate responses.
The findings come as the Space Force and Pentagon invest heavily in more resilient satellite constellations, missile warning systems and other capabilities intended to withstand attacks on space assets. According to Charles Galbreath, one of the report's authors, protecting satellites is only part of the challenge.
The workshop found that the United States remains vulnerable to adversaries exploiting ambiguity through activities such as jamming, cyberattacks, directed-energy interference and close-proximity satellite operations. China, Galbreath argued, is gradually normalizing such behavior while avoiding actions that would clearly trigger a military response.
Without clearer policies, better-defined norms and a broader range of military response options, the report warns, Washington risks allowing competitors to dictate the pace of escalation. It calls for continued investment in capabilities designed to achieve "space superiority," alongside greater emphasis on resilience, rapid satellite reconstitution, cyber defense and cooperation with allies.
To test those ideas, participants worked through a series of hypothetical scenarios ranging from Chinese anti-satellite attacks and Russian GPS interference to Iranian attacks enabled by space capabilities and an unattributed nuclear detonation in low Earth orbit that disabled hundreds of satellites.
Notably, Galbreath cautioned that the Space Force's proposed budget surge does not automatically solve the problems identified in the report.
"What we're seeing in the next president's budget is a good step in the right direction, but I don't believe that that will be the desired end state," he said.
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