Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Military Space: Rules of conflict in orbit remain unclear

A big deal in the small satellite sector
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06/23/2026

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By Sandra Erwin


Welcome to this week's edition of SpaceNews' Military Space, your source for the latest developments at the intersection of space and national security. In this week's edition: The United States needs framework for responding to hostile acts in space; why MDA Space bought satellite manufacturer Blue Canyon.


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Global spending on technologies to track and monitor space is projected to reach $61 billion over the next decade, according to a new report by Novaspace. Higher spending is being fueled by rising orbital congestion, contested space activity and growing geopolitical tensions. Seen here is a U.S. Space Force service member monitoring orbital activity from the Joint Commercial Operations Center during exercise Freedom Shield 26 at Osan Air Base, Republic of Korea. Credit U.S. Space Force photo by 1st Lt. Jimmy Nguyen

Amid a military space buildup, rules of conflict in orbit remain unclear


Even as Washington spends more on military space than ever before, the rules of conflict in orbit remain unsettled, says a new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies


The report notes that one of the most basic questions in military space operations remains unresolved: When does competition in space become war?


Based on a January workshop that brought together more than 50 experts from the military, government, industry, allied nations and academia, the report concludes that the United States is already engaged in a sustained gray-zone competition with China in orbit. Yet participants found little consensus on where hostile behavior ends and armed conflict begins.


"Conflict in space is more complex than many participants anticipated," the report states, citing challenges in assessing escalation, attributing hostile actions and determining appropriate responses.


The findings come as the Space Force and Pentagon invest heavily in more resilient satellite constellations, missile warning systems and other capabilities intended to withstand attacks on space assets. According to Charles Galbreath, one of the report's authors, protecting satellites is only part of the challenge.


The workshop found that the United States remains vulnerable to adversaries exploiting ambiguity through activities such as jamming, cyberattacks, directed-energy interference and close-proximity satellite operations. China, Galbreath argued, is gradually normalizing such behavior while avoiding actions that would clearly trigger a military response.


Without clearer policies, better-defined norms and a broader range of military response options, the report warns, Washington risks allowing competitors to dictate the pace of escalation. It calls for continued investment in capabilities designed to achieve "space superiority," alongside greater emphasis on resilience, rapid satellite reconstitution, cyber defense and cooperation with allies.


To test those ideas, participants worked through a series of hypothetical scenarios ranging from Chinese anti-satellite attacks and Russian GPS interference to Iranian attacks enabled by space capabilities and an unattributed nuclear detonation in low Earth orbit that disabled hundreds of satellites.


Notably, Galbreath cautioned that the Space Force's proposed budget surge does not automatically solve the problems identified in the report.


"What we're seeing in the next president's budget is a good step in the right direction, but I don't believe that that will be the desired end state," he said. 


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MDA makes U.S. defense play with Blue Canyon deal


A deal announced Friday is reshuffling the ownership of one of the military space sector's best-known satellite manufacturers. MDA Space agreed to acquire Blue Canyon Technologies from RTX for $620 million in cash, giving the Canadian company a larger U.S. defense footprint.


The transaction stands out because it runs counter to a consolidation trend that has shaped the defense space sector. As the Pentagon shifted toward proliferated satellite constellations built around larger numbers of smaller spacecraft, major defense contractors moved to acquire commercial satellite manufacturers. Boeing bought Millennium Space Systems. Lockheed Martin acquired Terran Orbital. RTX is now heading in the opposite direction.


Blue Canyon, which Raytheon acquired in 2020, supplies spacecraft, avionics and satellite components for NASA, military and commercial missions. The company makes satellites in the 50- to 500-kilogram class, a market that has expanded as the Defense Department seeks lower-cost and more rapidly deployable space systems.


For MDA, the acquisition is about more than adding another product line. The company, best known for satellite robotics, the Canadarm program and Earth observation systems, gains an established U.S. manufacturing footprint and a stronger position in Pentagon procurement programs. 


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American satellite firms capitalize on Europe’s intelligence buildup


Earth intelligence company Vantor is partnering with German defense contractor Rheinmetall to pursue a fast-growing market in Europe: governments seeking their own satellite intelligence capabilities.


The companies announced plans to establish a joint venture that would provide geospatial intelligence services to customers in Germany and across Europe while keeping key elements of control and intellectual property within Europe. Rheinmetall described the effort as laying the foundation for a "sovereign European capability in the field of geospatial intelligence."


The agreement reflects a broader shift underway in the commercial remote-sensing sector, where governments are seeking direct access to intelligence capabilities rather than relying solely on data and services distributed through the U.S. government.


For Vantor, formerly known as Maxar Intelligence, the partnership offers a pathway into one of the world's fastest-growing defense markets. Germany has committed tens of billions of euros to military space and defense programs through the end of the decade, creating opportunities for companies that can provide satellite imagery, mapping and intelligence services.


Rheinmetall, best known for military vehicles, munitions and weapons systems, has expanded aggressively into space, reconnaissance and satellite-related programs as European governments increase defense spending following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


Vantor executives have said one of the company's fastest-growing businesses involves countries pursuing their own intelligence and surveillance capabilities


Competitors pursuing similar opportunities


Planet Labs last year secured a $280 million multi-year contract funded by the German government to provide dedicated Pelican satellite capacity and direct downlink services over parts of Europe in support of security and defense missions. The company also signed a multi-year agreement with the Swedish Armed Forces that includes satellites, space-based data and situational-awareness services.


Earlier this year, the company announced a $230 million agreement to build Pelican satellites for an Asia-Pacific customer.


BlackSky has likewise centered much of its international expansion on what it calls "assured" services, providing government customers with guaranteed access to imagery, analytics and constellation capacity.


The company recently reported a $25 million multi-year contract with an unnamed international defense customer that includes access to Gen-3 imagery and AI-enabled analytics. BlackSky also announced an eight-figure international agreement to accelerate delivery of a sovereign space-based intelligence capability built around its Gen-3 system.


Over the past year, BlackSky has announced multiple contracts with government and defense customers focused on subscription access, sovereign architectures and national intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.


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