| By Mike Gruss
A booming space economy means eye-popping numbers. (See: A $1T valuation for SpaceX following a potential initial public offering.)
In the last week, a few more of those figures came up. The first is that China has submitted two filings for huge non-geostationary satellite networks to the International Telecommunication Union, indicating moves to secure options for next-generation megaconstellations. Those megaconstellations could total nearly 200,000 satellites. As SpaceNews China correspondent Andrew Jones wrote, together, the pair represent one of the largest constellation filings ever made, highlighting the growing competition over orbital and spectrum resources.
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Second, SpaceX received approval from the FCC for a second tranche of 7,500 Starlink Gen2 satellites.
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There's a lot to think about here when it comes to the cadence of producing those satellites or launching those satellites, but also from a saturation standpoint. I asked Jeff Foust, SpaceNews' senior staff writer, how to think about these numbers, particularly when it comes to space sustainability.
Here's what he said:
"So far, we have avoided the worst-case scenarios many predicted several years ago when SpaceX started full-scale deployment of Starlink satellites. There have been no collisions and very few close calls. SpaceX's automated system to maneuver satellites to avoid potential close approaches has worked well, and the company coordinates with many other commercial and government satellite operators.
The FCC, in its order authorizing the second tranche of 7,500 Starlink Gen2 satellites, noted that there have been very few in-orbit failures of Starlink satellites that prevent them from maneuvering, contrary to predictions of critics of the constellation. The FCC stated that this 'illustrates that commenters' concerns that hundreds to thousands of failed, non-maneuverable Gen2 Starlink satellites are unlikely to come to pass.'
But past performance is no guarantee of future success. As the number of launches grows, with more satellites being deployed by more large constellations, the risk of collisions will grow. In December, SpaceX criticized a Chinese launch operator, CAS Space, for deploying a satellite that passed within 200 meters of a Starlink satellite, saying that there was no pre-launch coordination or deconfliction by CAS Space. There is no single agreed-up international platform for handling such coordination; SpaceX, for example, requests satellite operators provide data on its own system. If anything like the proposed 200,000-satellite Chinese system comes to pass, along with other new and expanded constellations, the need for coordination will become urgent to avoid a collision that could litter low Earth orbit with debris."
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