By Mike Gruss
Doubts about the lunar lander version of SpaceX's Starship continue to mount.
Consider the last couple weeks.
Perhaps most notably, a panel of NASA safety advisers said they were skeptical the vehicle would be ready to support the Artemis 3 mission planned for 2027. That came from a Sept. 19 public meeting when members of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel said they expected the Human Landing System, or HLS, version of Starship would be years late.
At the beginning of the month, former NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine told a NASA panel that the choice of SpaceX's Starship put the agency at risk of falling behind China in lunar exploration.
A day earlier, three former NASA leaders wrote in an opinion piece in SpaceNews that it was "indisputably clear that the plan for Artemis will not get the United States back to the moon before China."
NASA's acting administrator, Sean Duffy, did not appreciate the second-guessing.
So what's leading to the recent bout of skepticism? We asked Jeff Foust, SpaceNews' senior staff writer:
"A major factor is the string of Starship test flight failures earlier this year, which showed the challenges SpaceX was facing just getting Starship into orbit. That has pushed back the development schedule: testing propellant transfer in orbit, a key demonstration NASA expected to take place this year, has been postponed to next year. That will delay other testing milestones that make it unlikely that Starship will be ready in 2027 for the Artemis 3 landing, as NASA currently plans."
What could happen next? Any changes?
"There may not be much NASA can do to speed things up. Blue Origin's Blue Moon Mark 2, being developed for missions starting with Artemis 5, is years behind Starship. Trying to switch to an entirely new, simpler lander design, as some have suggested, would likely take even longer. The agency's best course of action may be to provide whatever additional technical expertise or support SpaceX needs, and hope for the best."
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