07/22/2025

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By Sandra Erwin

Welcome to this week's edition of SpaceNews' Military Space, your source for the latest developments at the intersection of space and national security. In this week's edition: Analysts expect it will take the Pentagon several months to hash out the overall blueprint for Golden Dome; the House Armed Services Committee pushes procurement overhaul; and the Space Force conducts a wargame.

Also, SpaceX has reshaped the global space industry with a speed and scale few thought possible. A new intelligence report from SpaceNews, "Understanding the SpaceX-Era Economy," explores how SpaceX upended traditional launch markets by scaling reusability, slashing costs and normalizing frequent access to orbit.

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Space Launch Delta 30, the unit that oversees launch operations at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, has a new commander. Col. Mark Shoemaker was succeeded July 8 by Col. James Horne. Due to the growth in commercial launches at Vandenberg and at Cape Canaveral, the Space Force last week released new guidelines for how it will allocate finite launch infrastructure and range resources. Credit: Space Systems Command

Golden Dome architecture still months away as industry eyes opportunities

The confirmation of Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein as head of the Golden Dome missile defense program sets the stage for what could become one of the Pentagon's most ambitious and expensive defense initiatives in decades. But industry and congressional observers warn that the real work is just beginning — and it could be months before the program's fundamental structure becomes clear.

Analysts expect it will take the Pentagon several months to hash out the overall blueprint for the missile defense system. With Guetlein now in charge of the analysis that will shape the architecture, his confirmation comes at a critical juncture, as Congress has already approved nearly $25 billion for Golden Dome in a reconciliation bill.

Architecture uncertainty

Todd Harrison, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said it should take at least three to six months for the Golden Dome program to settle on an architecture that dictates how every component — satellites, sensors, interceptors, command networks, launch systems — will work together to form an integrated defense shield.

Speaking at a SpaceNews online event July 17, Harrison noted that Congress approved Golden Dome funding even though DoD has not picked an architecture and that means the cost of the program is difficult to project out.

The absence of a detailed plan has drawn criticism from lawmakers who argue they lack sufficient information to evaluate the program's viability.

'Generational investment'

Harrison warned that regardless of what architecture is selected, "if you really want to have a robust homeland air and missile defense against a wide range of threats … I think you're looking at a generational investment. You're talking hundreds of billions of dollars over a decade, maybe two decades."

He voiced skepticism about one of the administration's most ambitious goals: deploying space-based interceptors. Harrison cited fundamental technical challenges that have historically prevented such deployments. "I think the space component of it will largely be sensors," Harrison said. "They will figure out pretty quickly why we've never fielded space based interceptors before. It's physics."
Harrison predicts that once the analysis is done, "when people actually run the numbers and they start to realize like, oh, that doesn't scale with the threat, I think our interceptors will largely be on the ground side."
There may be some "Hail Mary" investments in directed energy from space, Harrison speculated. "That would be great if we can get that to work. But I think it's going to be a generational investment to do anything of the magnitude that President Trump wants."

Industry positioning

Despite uncertainties, the defense industry is already mobilizing around Golden Dome. Mike Tierney, chief of legislative affairs at the National Security Space Association, said the administration will need to steadily increase funding for Golden Dome to advance next-generation technologies and cautioned it's premature to rule out any options.

"We're still in that government evaluation phase of the technology and capabilities," Tierney said. "This budget, with reconciliation as a component, sets the foundation for that, and really writes the first check of many that will need to be written in order to sustain Golden Dome."
Tierney noted that companies across the space industry are trying to position themselves and make investments in technology so "they don't miss the boat." Companies that are too small to be prime contractors will be looking for partnering opportunities. One way or the other, they all recognize that Golden Dome "is going to be a priority investment for the foreseeable future."

Funding timeline

Harrison noted that Golden Dome funds were approved by Congress to start spending in fiscal year 2025. "It's available now. They could start spending it," he said. "What's going to slow it down is not having an architecture selected yet."

However, the Defense Department could begin immediate investments in upgrades to existing missile-defense systems that would support Golden Dome "regardless of what architecture we pick." The reconciliation funds are authorized to be spent through fiscal year 2029, making this money "with a long shelf life" compared to regular appropriations.

While the initial funding provides a strong signal of government commitment, Harrison cautioned that there is also likely to be questions on whether Golden Dome will be a one-time surge or the start of steady funding growth. No company wants to be pouring resources into a program with uncertain long-term funding, he warned.

House NDAA pushes procurement overhaul

Procurement reform is getting a legislative facelift, and the proposed legislation could impact Space Force acquisitions.

The House Armed Services Committee last week advanced a sweeping set of acquisition changes as part of its draft fiscal year 2026 defense policy bill. Dubbed the Streamlining Procurement for Effective Execution and Delivery (SPEED) Act, the legislation takes aim at what lawmakers see as a sluggish, overly bureaucratic defense acquisition system.

Committee Chair Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Ranking Member Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) have championed the legislation, arguing that faster, smarter procurement is essential to keeping pace with threats from spacefaring rivals China and Russia.

The bill approved by the committee last week emphasizes cutting back on excessive red tape while boosting accountability and innovation. A key shift: organizing programs around mission areas — such as missile warning, satellite communications or space domain awareness — rather than around specific weapon systems.

The SPEED Act supports pilot programs that give Space Force acquisition officers longer tenures — breaking from the traditional three-year rotation.
Advocates say that could help program managers build the deep technical and leadership chops needed to guide multi-year efforts like next-generation missile warning constellations or proliferated low Earth orbit satellite networks.
The SPEED Act also authorizes acquisition leaders to more easily shut down or restructure programs that go off the rails, clearing the way for higher-priority capabilities. For a service constantly adapting to evolving threats in orbit such as anti-satellite weapons or interference with space-based surveillance, the committee said, that kind of flexibility is a growing necessity.
Another provision pushes for the use of AI-driven data analytics for resource allocation decisions. That includes assessing operational readiness, forecasting materiel needs and adjusting investments in response to shifting threat environments.

The reforms are also designed to help the Space Force tap into the fast-moving commercial space ecosystem. The bill encourages the adoption of data-as-a-service models and other commercial innovations, reflecting the service's 2024 Commercial Space Strategy, which laid out plans to integrate private-sector capabilities into national security missions.

Space Force runs wargame to prep for orbital emergencies

The Space Force is ramping up efforts to build a commercial reserve for orbital crises, conducting a wargame earlier this month to test how private space companies could bolster military capabilities in emergencies.

The two-day exercise, held at the Space Domain Awareness TAP Lab in Colorado Springs, was the second in a series of drills tied to the Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve (CASR) — a Pentagon initiative to create a space counterpart to the Civil Reserve Air Fleet that backs military airlift missions.

While a previous event in March centered on satellite communications, this month's scenario focused on space domain awareness, or SDA — tracking space objects and assessing orbital threats. Participants used real-world data from the breakup of Intelsat 33e, a malfunctioning comms satellite that shed more than 20 pieces of debris in geosynchronous orbit.
The scenario explored how commercial SDA capabilities could be rapidly tapped to respond to debris hazards or hostile acts in orbit.
Space Systems Command is aiming to stand up "Tier 1" CASR capabilities by 2026 — baseline contracts that allow for surge options. A full-scale mobilization under "Tier 2" would be reserved for major conflicts or national security emergencies.

The Pentagon requested $7.7 million in fiscal year 2026 to stand up CASR's operating budget. While official budget documents show $23.6 million for the program, officials said $15.9 million of that was mistakenly included and is being reallocated to a separate GPS modernization effort.

The $7.7 million would fund basic integration of commercial providers, threat-sharing mechanisms, inspection protocols and continued exercises.

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