Golden Dome faces new scrutiny after Ukraine drone attack

The Pentagon's ambitious missile shield project dubbed Golden Dome is under renewed scrutiny following Ukraine's bold drone strike inside Russian territory earlier this month.

The system — touted by the Trump administration and expected to be deployed over the next three years — is designed to guard against a wide spectrum of threats: ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, advanced cruise missiles and other "next-generation aerial attacks."

But after Ukraine's "Operation Spiderweb" attack, which targeted four Russian airfields with commercially available drones launched from within Russian borders, U.S. lawmakers and defense officials are asking tough questions about whether Golden Dome is built for the future battlefield.

"There are parts of Golden Dome that we clearly need to do. The Ukrainian attack on the Russian bomber fleet highlighted the vulnerability of bases," said Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) during a recent House Armed Services Committee hearing.
The strike showed how relatively low-cost drone swarms can slip past traditional air defenses, which typically rely on radar and expensive interceptors — tools built to detect and destroy missiles.
"We'll see how the conversation gets stirred up again based on this strike," said Gen. David Allvin, U.S. Air Force chief of staff, speaking at a defense conference hosted by the Center for a New American Security last week.

Defense analysts warn that Golden Dome's current architecture may not address this growing class of threats. While the U.S. Army is working on counter-drone tech — ranging from electronic jamming to lasers and physical barriers — none of these have been publicly mentioned as being part of the Golden Dome concept.

"Operation Spiderweb sparked some imagination for what an innovative and highly proliferated aerial attack is capable of," said Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Still, Karako emphasized the distinction between drone defense and missile defense, pointing out that these two problems require different technical solutions.

"There will have to be a prioritization discussion," said Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. "There's still a lot we don't know. We need to see the details of the architecture."
Bingen noted the drone threat isn't new. Military bases like Langley AFB in Virginia have already faced incursions — but Golden Dome's role in addressing that remains vague.
Karako put it bluntly: "A drone attack against a U.S. military base is bound to happen. It's just a matter of time. And perhaps we're just lucky that it hasn't happened yet."

SpaceX fallout fears overblown, say analysts

The political clash between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk is dominating the headlines, but disrupting SpaceX's role in U.S. space and security strategy is easier said than done.

After days of escalating public feuding between the president and the SpaceX CEO, speculation surged that the spat could imperil SpaceX's lucrative contracts with NASA and the Pentagon. The company is the sole U.S. provider capable of ferrying astronauts to the International Space Station using its Dragon spacecraft. Cutting SpaceX out of government business would leave the U.S. without a domestic option for crewed spaceflight — effectively forcing NASA to lean again on Russia's Soyuz program.

The Pentagon, too, would face a strategic bind. SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets dominate national security launches, with rivals like United Launch Alliance and Blue Origin still unable to match the pace, scale or price. Other players such as Rocket Lab and Stoke Space remain years away from offering certified alternatives that can compete in national security launch.

Analysts point out that Washington's dependence on Musk's space company is deeper than most realize. SpaceX's Starlink satellite network, operating under the military-focused Starshield program, has become essential to U.S. defense infrastructure — offering lower latency, higher redundancy and user-friendly terminals in the field.
The National Reconnaissance Office is also leaning heavily on Starshield's remote sensing satellites for its next-generation spy network.
"Other contractors could step in if the program were yanked, but there are costs, and we don't know if they could match the scale and efficiency that SpaceX can achieve via Starlink," wrote Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners in a research note. He added that SpaceX is also positioned to compete in missile defense initiatives like the Golden Dome system.
Callan said industry watchers remain unconvinced that political infighting will translate into real policy moves. "We are skeptical that the vitriolic exchanges between Trump and Musk would lead to changes that significantly harm U.S. security and space launch capacity," he said.

Before SpaceX broke through, the U.S. worried about United Launch Alliance's monopoly. Now, it's wrestling with the opposite problem: an over-reliance on a single company that has rapidly outpaced global competitors.

As Gen. Stephen Whiting, head of U.S. Space Command, told Congress in April: "They certainly have been innovative and rapidly changed that market." Without SpaceX, he said, the U.S. might still be neck-and-neck with China and Russia in orbital launch capability — instead of leading the pack.

Space remote sensing firms look abroad

U.S. Earth observation companies such as Maxar, BlackSky, Planet and Capella Space are accelerating their push into international markets, positioning themselves as providers of "sovereign" Earth observation services to foreign governments, we report in the latest issue of SpaceNews Magazine.

The shift comes as the Trump administration moves to cut federal spending, including for agencies that historically funded commercial remote sensing.
Executives say the move is more than defensive: global demand for independent surveillance capabilities is rising sharply.
Maxar inked a $14 million deal with the Dutch Ministry of Defense and a $35 million contract with two Asia-Pacific governments, offering what it calls "dedicated capacity packages" that give foreign customers control over satellite tasking. BlackSky landed a $100 million, seven-year contract with a foreign customer, plus deals in India and Indonesia.
Planet and Capella are reporting similar momentum, with Planet signing a $230 million deal to build high-res satellites for an unnamed Asia-Pacific nation.

The trend reflects how far the commercial remote sensing market has evolved from its Cold War roots. Once dominated by government programs, the sector now enables countries with limited space programs to buy into advanced geospatial capabilities without having to build their own infrastructure.

Much of the shift is tied to the war in Ukraine, which spotlighted the value of commercial satellite imagery in military operations. The conflict has helped normalize commercial tasking for battlefield intelligence — while also proving the agility of private firms in delivering timely data.

While the international market remains difficult to quantify due to confidential contracts and export restrictions, disclosed deals point to hundreds of millions in annual business — and growing. As Maxar's international lead Anders Linder put it: "It's like having a sovereign capability — without having to build one."

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