11/18/2025

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By Sandra Erwin

Welcome to this week's edition of SpaceNews' Military Space, your source for the latest developments at the intersection of space and national security. In this week's edition: Technology no longer the limiter with space-based interceptors and a new report warns China's space buildup is outpacing the U.S.

Also, Military Space readers may be interested to learn U.S. Space Force Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy will headline this year's Icon Awards program. You can register now.

If someone forwarded you this edition, sign up to receive it directly in your inbox every Tuesday. And we're eager to hear your feedback and suggestions. You can hit reply to let me know directly or message me on Signal @SandraErwin.43

Blue Origin's successful second launch of its New Glenn rocket Nov. 13 marked a "monumental step towards New Glenn delivering our most critical warfighting capabilities to orbit," said Lt. Col. Brian Scheller, of the U.S. Space Force's Space Systems Command. The command is responsible for the certification of New Glenn as national security launch provider. Certification flights are a subset of the certification process and provide valuable analytical data. Credit: Blue Origin

Space-based interceptors in the spotlight

Space-based interceptors (SBIs) are now front and center in the emerging Golden Dome missile-defense architecture. Even without an approved architecture or program of record, interest in SBIs is accelerating across the defense and space industries — a dynamic on display at SpaceNews' live panel discussion last week.

Experts there described technology that is advancing quickly enough to make SBIs plausible, while simultaneously warning that the strategic, operational and governance questions are piling up faster than the Pentagon is answering them.

Golden Dome 101:

For readers who haven't been tracking the latest developments:

Golden Dome is the Pentagon's homeland missile defense initiative that aims to stitch together a multi layer architecture built for faster warning, faster tracking and more options to defeat missile threats. The effort spans sensors, command and control, and potential new intercept layers. The concept is still early and light on public detail. There is no approved architecture, and communication from DoD has been minimal, which is why analysts, companies and lawmakers are pushing for a clearer picture of scope, responsibilities and timelines.
Space-based interceptors are missile-defense weapons stationed in orbit that maneuver rapidly and strike enemy missiles during the earliest moments of flight. The boost phase is the most attractive window — when a missile is hottest, brightest, and easiest to track.
This concept dates back to the Strategic Defense Initiative but stalled over costs, constellation size, and the command-and-control burden that comes with keeping interceptors ready on orbit. Golden Dome has revived the discussion, driven by concerns over hypersonic weapons, fractional orbital bombardment systems, and the persistent difficulty of engaging threats early in flight.
Advocates argue SBIs could close critical gaps in U.S. missile defense. Critics warn they might create new vulnerabilities — including the need to defend hundreds of interceptors from jamming, lasers, cyberattacks and anti-satellite weapons.

Technology no longer the limiter

During the SpaceNews discussion, Patrick Binning, professor of space systems engineering at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, offered a clear case for revisiting SBIs. He argued the threat landscape has shifted dramatically:

"Threats have dramatically changed so advanced technologies and advanced concepts from our competitor nations, things such as hypersonic missiles, things such as fractional orbital bombardment systems."

On capacity, Binning said the industrial base is showing the ability to rapidly and inexpensively launch hundreds and thousands of satellites. It's no longer a radical concept to have thousands of satellites in orbit doing something important."

He highlighted the importance of the sensor architecture the Pentagon and Space Force are deploying. "The missile warning systems, the missile tracking systems that the Space Force are putting up, are going to be able to give an accurate, high quality, rapid fire control solution to the government prototypes that we're hoping to demonstrate in the next couple of years."

Binning added that the same SBI technology could support "space fires" missions — a concept floated by U.S. Space Command chief Gen. Stephen Whiting — to protect critical U.S. satellites.

Still, he cautioned that the biggest challenge may be decision speed, not hardware:

"When it comes to latency, my concern is about the decision making and the government's ability to say, 'yes, go conduct that intercept' on timelines that are very short, very tight."

Decision rules loom large

Todd Harrison, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, highlighted two core issues: command authority and vulnerability.

He noted that adversaries could simply exhaust the system. "If an adversary wants to cause us to lose some of our interceptors, then the number one thing they can do is just launch decoys that cause us to expend our interceptors prematurely."

On governance, Harrison summed up industry frustration with Pentagon silence:

"It's like the first rule of Golden Dome is, don't talk about Golden Dome ... The government's not saying much on the decision on which type of architecture to pursue … what are the threats they expect to see, and what are the timelines involved."

Harrison also noted that while Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein has been designated the head program manager for Golden Dome, many of the architectural choices may ultimately require White House involvement.

Industry preparing demos

Todd Stevens, vice president of strike, deterrence and missile defense at Lockheed Martin Space, said the company is preparing to conduct an in-orbit demonstration of SBI prototypes by 2028.

"We haven't seen the official architecture released from the government," Stevens said. For now the industry is defaulting to President Trump's executive order as its planning framework. "I think the technology is there."

Analyst warns silence becoming a liability for Golden Dome

While the industry is advancing the technology needed for Golden Dome, the policy framework remains opaque."Loosen the gag order," writes Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a Breaking Defense.

He warns that Golden Dome is "at serious risk of falling apart" due to lack of communication — not conceptual flaws.

Karako argues the Pentagon must explain, at least at an unclassified level, the layers, mission threads and integration points the architecture requires. Without that, he said:

Congress won't spend large sums without knowing what success looks like.
Industry cannot invest confidently.
Allies and adversaries will fill the information vacuum with speculation.

Global reactions already taking shape

Marshall Kaplan, CEO of Launchspace Services, writes in SpaceNews that skepticism about Golden Dome's cost and scope is predictable — but major nuclear powers are nonetheless scrutinizing the idea.

He warns that adversaries could respond with new arms technologies and political pressure, but predicts confidence will grow if the architecture proves robust in testing:

"Tests, exercises, wargames and real-world events will reveal missile interception rates that were previously thought impossible."

FROM SPACENEWS

Listen to the latest episode of our Space Minds podcast

Keeping America first in space: In the latest episode of Space Minds, David Ariosto speaks with Jim Bridenstine, former NASA administrator and U.S. Congressman, who oversaw the launch of the Artemis program. Bridenstine shares candid insights on why America's leadership in space depends on sustaining investment, fostering commercial partnerships, and inspiring a new generation through science and exploration. Listen now.

China's speed in space alarms U.S. policymakers

A new 745-page report from Congress's bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission confirms what other experts have said: Beijing is moving faster than Washington in space, and its dual-use integration gives it a structural advantage the U.S. can't easily match.

The commission, established in 2000 to monitor China-U.S. security implications, isn't pulling punches. "China's rapid advancements in space capabilities should concern every American," the 2025 annual report warns. The worry goes beyond traditional space concerns like GPS disruption. The real alarm: China's commercial space sector operates on an entirely military-relevant basis, allowing Beijing to weaponize civilian innovations almost instantly.

What China is building: Beyond launch vehicles and mega-constellations, the report details an arsenal of next-generation systems: quantum-encrypted satellites for secure communications, spaceplanes that operate in both atmosphere and vacuum, space-based AI and computing networks, solar power satellites that beam energy earthside, and nuclear thermal propulsion to dramatically shrink transit times for deep-space operations.

Space Force Gen. Chance Saltzman, U.S. chief of space operations, used the word "mind-boggling" in commission testimony to describe China's pace. The stakes? In a Pacific conflict, U.S. military operations depend on satellite networks across vast distances. China's arsenal of anti-satellite weapons could sever those links.

The policy response: The commission is pushing Congress to reallocate Space Force appropriations to "levels necessary to achieve space control" against Chinese capabilities. It's also urging the Pentagon to expand space wargaming, develop threat modeling for Chinese scenarios and train operators on combat tactics. It notes that the Space Force recently has been moving from space-as-infrastructure to space-as-warfighting-domain thinking.

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